The Time Is Now For Rizzo

The day that Cubs fans have been anxiously awaiting since the team proved to be a flop may finally be here. Rumors of Anthony Rizzo being called up on Tuesday to get his first cracks against the Mets are picking up steam, and it would certainly be a logical time to bring the 22 year old up to the big leagues.

Hope is dwindling as the Cubs are currently sitting with half as many wins as losses at 24-48, any news circulating on the North Side these days is about players who could be leaving in a trade. The power numbers are especially abysmal, the team has only been able to put 57 balls over the fence and 263 men across the plate, good for the 24th and 26th ranks respectively in the MLB. Attendance still technically ranks the 7th best in the league, but those numbers deal in the number of tickets sold and not the number of fans actually filling the seats. Any fan who has watched a few home games can see that Wrigley field is not seating nearly 38,000 fans on a regular basis, the actual number may actually be half that many.

Enter Anthony Rizzo, who has hit 23 long balls to go along with 62 RBI in 69 games at triple A Iowa this season. Needless to say the hype machine has been whirring around Rizzo since he first landed in Chicago this offseason and has only augmented the buzz by putting up arguably the best numbers in the minors thus far. With all of that said, management will be doing the organization a great favor by putting Rizzo on the roster now instead of continuing to wait.

Some critics may remember the lack of success that plagued Rizzo in his 2011 stint with the Padres after putting up similar minor leagues. Rizzo hit 26 homers in 93 games and was called up to San Diego with big expectations, but he went on to hit .141 with only 1 home run in 49 games, much to the dismay of the Padre faithful.  But the differences between the situations are numerous, and even if Rizzo goes on to have the same problems the Cubs will at least know exactly what to expect from what they perceive to be a top prospect that can develop into a franchise cornerstone.

One of the major changes for Rizzo will be in the ballparks where he spends most of his time. Going from the pitcher friendly Petco Park to Wrigley, which has days where the ball seems to be magnetically attracted to the outfield bleachers, is going to be both a stat and confidence booster for the young first baseman. This is also be Rizzo’s 5th year in the minors, the same amount of time that Adrian Gonzalez spent in development and significantly more than the minor league tenures of Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder. Right now the organization believes that Rizzo has the potential to be an elite first baseman, and so the developmental time should be right in line with that of other successful players at the same position. There’s also the more obvious fact that Rizzo is putting up huge numbers right now, and the team would have been hard pressed to hold back such a promising slugger even with some of his previous woes.

Like it or not, by this time next week Anthony Rizzo will most likely have completed his few games in Chicago and will be headed for many more this season. He may or may not have a breakout year in 2012, but odds are that Rizzo is going to produce now or never with the amount of time he’s spent as a professional. Now is the time for the Cubs to bring up Anthony Rizzo, and hopefully it will finally be his time to shine.

Who Will Lead The Cubs After Dempster?

There is no doubting that Ryan Dempster will no longer be wearing the blue pinstripes come the first of August, he is exactly the type of player that the Cubs are looking to unload in order to supplement their rebuilding project. Dempster has shined in 2012, putting together arguably the strongest two months of his career with a 2.11 ERA that isr the second lowest among major league pitchers. There has already been plenty of interest in the 35 year old and he has hinted that he would be willing to waive his 10/5 no trade clause if the right deal presented itself. When Dempster is shipped off to a contender, there will be an obvious void at the top of the rotation that will need to be staffed, but the departure of a clubhouse leader will prove to be even bigger shoes to fill for the rest of the roster. On a team that will feature an increasing number of high profile prospects in coming years, the presence of veteran leadership will be crucial to keep them in line. The unnerving truth is that on the there are few players on the current roster that can fit that description.

The Cubs made some strides during the offseason to improve clubhouse character by trading away character cancer Carlos Zambrano. They also brought in wily veteran David Dejesus to pave the way for a future generation of selective and fundamentally sound players. However, most of the important players that returned to the North Side are not the type to set a positive example or inspire teammates before and after games. Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano may be two of the most important players on the field, but both face internal struggles that keep them from taking leadership roles. Garza has a lingering anger issue and Soriano has had a chronic issue with his hustle. Dejesus and Reed Johnson would be good candidates, but at the respective ages of 32 and 35 there is little guarantee that either will be able to stick with the team for more than another year or two. The right man for the job is one with a few years to burn and a mature disposition that can be seen from the moment they enter the league. Starlin Castro has his heart in the right place, but still needs work getting his head pointed in the same direction. Bryan LaHair is playing his first full year in the league and might also be traded by the deadline, eliminating him from the conversation as well.

So who can become the  Ryan Dempster of the future? Jeff Samardzija might be the most likely candidate. Samardzija may have a wild hairstyle, but the former two sport athlete at Notre Dame has always tamed his emotions and  carried himself with the utmost class during his first few years as a Cub. He has already had to face difficult circumstances with the passing of his mother during his high school years and the pressure to choose between football and baseball after graduating from college. Now that he has emerged as one of the Cubs’ best young pieces there is no reason why Samardzija couldn’t play a vocal role on the team for years to come. Anthony Rizzo may not even be on the major league roster, but it is almost a certainty that he will spend at least half of this year in the big leagues and should perform well enough to come back every year after. Rizzo has also faced life obstacles that have forced him to mature like his bout with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in 2007 and will be able to command the respect of the team if he can continue to hit for consistent power in the bigs. Darwin Barney has a respectable and intelligent way about him and might also play a part in helping young players if he can keep a spot on the team.

There are options out there, but only one that can be seen as more than speculative. The need for leaders is evident and lacking on the current team. The difference between a great team and a talented one is a cohesion between players. Talent is important, but can be wasted without proper team chemistry. Ryan Dempster will leave behind a legacy of classy production and an outstanding Harry Caray impression during his time in Chicago. The next man up doesn’t need to be a great impressionist, but he must be willing to step up and do things the right way to help the Cubs break the curse that has plagued them for all these years.

Cubs Believe In Soler Power

After a quiet first offseason, Theo and Co. have finally made their first big signing splash in Chicago. Jorge Soler, 20 year old Cuban phenom, is bringing his talents to the Windy City to the tune of 30 million dollars over nine years. Soler is said to be a five tool player, a term that gets tossed around all too casually in baseball these days but can still indicate the sort of expectations that fans, experts, and management alike have for his future. Soler may already seem like a bona fide pro, but young outfielder will first have to maneuver his way through the minor league ranks with a constant spotlight on his back. Even in the minor leagues he will face more attention and expectations than ever before, and anything less than an All-Star career will be seen as a disappointment to some fans. The only guarantees as of today are that Soler is going to play in a Cubs uniform, and he had better be ready to shoulder the burden of being a part of the revival of the most victory deprived franchise in sports.

As soon as Ken Rosenthal confirmed the initial report broken by Joel Sherman that the Cubs had outbid the Yankees for his services, the praise for Soler started rolling in from all corners of the web.

Espn.com’s Keith Law says that Soler “would probably have been a top-five pick on merit” in this year’s draft and “Among prospects currently in the Cubs’ system, he’d rank behind only Anthony Rizzo, who has less upside but far greater probability.”

Josh Timmers of the popular Cubs site bleedcubbieblue.com called Soler “If Soler were in the draft this week, he would have gone somewhere in the top eight. If everything works out, he might end up being as good as Nelson Cruz. That’s pretty good. Nelson Cruz is a very good ballplayer. Maybe he’ll be a little better. We just don’t know yet.”

Not knowing, of course, is still the operative term, but that won’t stop pundits from raving about him in similar fashion. Despite his lack of American caliber baseball experience, Soler already has some encouraging signs working in his favor like his size at 6’3” and 225 pounds. Law believes that he still needs to add some muscle, but he can still be a decent power hitter in the league if he stays at his current size. Soler also has a good glove, he has the most experience playing center field and has the arm to play a productive right field if need be. His speed is above average at present but could regress slightly with the change to the American game. Despite swinging for consistent power, Soler does not frequently strike out because he excels at making adjustments in order to produce contact. Soler is seen as a bigger risk than his country mate and Athletics outfielder Yoenes Cespedes because Soler comes less MLB ready, but if he pans out Soler appears to have the higher ceiling of the pair.

Equally inspiring is the growing pool of talent in the farm system with the recent additions of Soler and first round draft pick Albert Almora to improve a farm system that already lays claim to Anthony Rizzo, Brett Jackson, and Javier Baez. The building from the ground up philosophy that Epstein promised upon arrival seems to be coming into place as the Cubs are beginning to stockpile young talent in the farm system.

Jorge Soler’s limit in Chicago is currently sky high, and with the right attitude and work ethic it can stay that way. The next couple of years might be the most important to see how he can adapt to a new game in a new place with pressure that will only increase as time goes on. For now, the Cubs appear to be winners in a season of losses. Down the road, things could turn out a variety of ways for their new international prospect.

To Trade or Not to Trade?

Cubs fans are happy to concede it in the early going, most likely because they’ve had such adequate practice in past years- this year’s team is a seller. Despite not generating the big name appeal that a team in acquisition mode will, it’s still exciting to see an albatross contract taken off of the books or a few promising players enter the farm system in a down year. The tricky part of deadline dealing is toeing the line between selling high and getting burned. There is often little indication of whether someone is at the peak of their performance in a given year or will end up being a player that could have helped put the team over the top in a later year. Trade rumours have surfaced about nearly everyone on the Cubs roster, even the seemingly untouchable Starlin Castro. The chances of Castro being moved are slim, but there are a number of other players that Theo Epstein could see fit to move in the coming months. It is imperative that Theo not set the Cubs back any more than necessary by trading away long term contributors, despite any current value.

Despite what some less knowledgeable Epstein fans, his early years with the Red Sox did not involve the trading of players purely out of the necessity to rebuild the farm system from the ground up. Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Pedro Martinez, and Jason Varitek were all on the roster when Epstein became the GM in Boston in 2002, and were still on the team in the 2004 World Series year. These two teams will most likely finish with very different records (The Bosox finished 93-69 in 2002) but the mantra was similar for both teams when Epstein was hired; a disappointing last few seasons that were only the most recent edition in a history of heartbreak. Both times Epstein was the overachiever brought in to change the culture in one of the countries’ biggest markets, and so comparisons can certainly be made in regards to dealing with personnel.

The best comparison between one of those guys and a current Cub is Damon and Matt Garza, who both were/are 28 years of age in Epstein’s first season with their respective club and are seen as crucial pieces but just fall short of being cornerstones. 2002 was Damon’s first season and 2012 is Garza’s second, and both put together solid numbers during their first year with their new team. Damon hit .286 with 11 triples and Garza posted a 3.32 ERA with a 1.258 WHIP. After narrowly missing the playoffs in ‘02, Epstein saw it fit to keep anyone who was contributing on the team and build through free agency or the farm system. Two years later, history was made and the Red Sox have hardly looked back since. The Cubs might not be quite as close to a championship, but the sentiment is the same; hold on to players under 30 that are high caliber rather than try and take a gamble for more value in the long run.

A player that should be moved, however, would be an aging starter like Ryan Dempster. A player who won’t be able to sustain his 2.90 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for more than another season or two, and even that estimate may be a bit optimistic given the longevity of starters with over 2100 innings pitched. Dempster, although a great guy in the clubhouse and a productive player for now, would most likely be able to fetch at least one prospect with a good chance of contributing a year or two down the road from a contender looking to supplement the middle of their rotation, providing the Cubs with another option once they begin to regain relevance down the road. Other players are more borderline than Garza or Dempster, like Bryan LaHair. There is a case to keep LaHair, who could just be a late bloomer, but much more often it seems that players who get hot for a few months are prone to fizzle out, Exhibit A being Kosuke Fukudome in 2008. Ten years from now, fans will reminisce about how amazing it was that Fukudome was an All-Star starter and ended up hitting .257 with 10 home runs in the same year. LaHair’s age is really the tipping point, at age 29 he is too old to be seen as an emerging talent but too unproven to be given the benefit of the doubt to be productive for the next 4 or 5 years. The Cubs would be wise to sell high on LaHair and hopefully add another piece to the team in 2 or 3 years.

The decision to trade a player is always a tough one that should be judged on a case by case basis. The Cubs have a few interesting trade options, a few of which will never be able to play on a World Series team on the North Side and should have a chance to help a winner while they still can. Its even more crucial for Theo to understand that even Cubs fans won’t stand for a complete teardown and rebuild, and anyone who he can envision as vital to the team in 3 or 4 years needs to stay.

Are The Cubs Really That Bad?

As I hopped on to espn.com today to browse some news, a link to the most recent MLB power rankings caught my eye. In a year where being a baseball fan comes as an extension of watching one of the worst teams in the game, its hard to get motivated to watch any games not involving one’s own team. This is all the more reason to look at a comprehensive list of teams in order from best to worst along with a short synopsis of why in order to get a better picture of how the rest of the league is shaping up. Granted any power rankings are merely the product of an opinion or group of opinions and that on the day of publication they were riding a league worst 12 game losing streak, but I was still somewhat surprised to see the Cubs in last place.

Now there were certainly reasons to put the North Siders in the 30th spot (the aforementioned skid being an prime example) but my issue was more with the realistic side of things. Given the strong starts by Starlin Castro, Bryan LaHair, and a majority of the starters, I had questions as to whether or not other bottom dwellers like the Twins or Padres had posted superior numbers. The result might appease Cubs fans in search of a silver lining, if only slightly.

Even on the surface, the stats indicate that the Cubs have been victims of tough luck more so than a lack of skill. Being 27th in runs scored, 18th in team batting average, 23rd in ERA, and 12th in BAA (Batting Average Allowed) is not typically a formula for worst team in the league, and there are in fact multiple clubs that consistently turn out inferior numbers. The Twins (23rd/19th/ 30th/ 29th respectively for the same stats) and Royals(26/9/24/26) tell similar statistical tales, but are ranked in the 29th and 26th respectively.

In the end, does it make a huge difference? No, but it’s still nice to be able to predict that a few more W flags should get raised at Wrigley as time goes on. As they say, the stats don’t lie. Even a historically unlucky club like the Cubs can’t be cursed by the numbers forever.