Five Things I Learned From The Crosstown Classic

I’ll admit it, I wasn’t able to catch much of the first Cubs/Sox series at Wrigley back in May, so when I saw that they were playing this week at U.S. Cellular I made sure to tune in for as much as I could. Surprisingly, the Cubs were able to win two of three games, the first of which came in dominant fashion behind a season high twelve runs. The second game was more the type of win that Cubs fans have come to expect on the few occasions that they see a victory, a 2-1 grind it out game where a run wasn’t scored by either team after the third inning. Finally, order was restored in game three with a 7-0 win by the White Sox in a disappointing finale to a series that had previously been able to instill a bit of pride in the north side of the city. Here are five observations from the second crosstown series of 2012.

1. Maybe The Cubs Will Start Hitting Now…..Never Mind
After the 12 run explosion on Monday night, some people might have thought that the Cubs could move up from 26th in the league in run production. However that game turned out to be fool’s gold after they proceeded to put two runs on the board in two combined games. Two things might help explain the temporary influx; two home runs that barely cleared the fence with the wind blowing out, and a rookie pitcher making his first start. Monday was fun to watch, but there may not be another game like it for the Cubs this year.
2. Power Hitters Are Frustrating
Adam Dunn came into the game with the most home runs in the majors at 23, and Alfonso Soriano came in with 12 home runs since May 15th, but both combined for eight strikeouts and only one home run over the last three games. The better bet will always be the guys that hit less long balls but have a higher average; Bryan LaHair and Paul Konerko combined for a pair of homers while only striking out five times.
3. Keep An Eye On Luis Valbuena
3 for 11 with one home run in the series won’t blow anyone away, but Valbuena is doing well filling in for Ian Stewart and may challenge for the everyday third baseman role when he returns. There’s no getting around it, Stewart has been downright awful at the hot corner. 5 home runs and a .201 average in 179 at bats isn’t going to cut it anywhere on the MLB, and if a guy comes along and does better than that with less experience, it’s hard to deny him an extended audition. Valbuena’s average seems low right now at .217, but with only twenty three at bats that number will fluctuate very quickly. After the first game of the series his average was just under .300, and with a pair of long balls to boot. He has made some great plays in the field and could prove to be just as talented as Stewart on defense as well. Stay tuned.
4. Jake Peavy Is Back
He hasn’t gotten the publicity that he deserves because of the emergence of Chris Sale, but Peavy looked to be close to his former Cy Young self despite taking the loss Tuesday night. He now sits at 6-3 with a 2.74 ERA and has to be firmly in the All Star conversation in the American League. He was able to locate multiple pitches consistently, something that he had struggled with before during his time on the South Side. He should play great at the top of the rotation for a team that should be in the AL Central division hunt for the rest of the season if he can continue to mix things up effectively.
5. This Was A Series Of Firsts And Lasts
Ryan Dempster’s last minute trip to the DL for lat stiffness before the beginning of the series was disappointing, but understandable given his current trade value. However that does mean that Dempster missed out on his last opportunity to take part in the crosstown classic, a series like few others. There is very little chance that Dempster will be on the team come next year, and he has to be as unhappy about missing his last chance to bring pride to Wrigley as the fans. On the other hand, prospects like Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson will most likely be on the regular roster in 2013, and it should be fun to show off some of the new weapons to skeptical Sox fans. Out with the old, in with the new.

Who Will Lead The Cubs After Dempster?

There is no doubting that Ryan Dempster will no longer be wearing the blue pinstripes come the first of August, he is exactly the type of player that the Cubs are looking to unload in order to supplement their rebuilding project. Dempster has shined in 2012, putting together arguably the strongest two months of his career with a 2.11 ERA that isr the second lowest among major league pitchers. There has already been plenty of interest in the 35 year old and he has hinted that he would be willing to waive his 10/5 no trade clause if the right deal presented itself. When Dempster is shipped off to a contender, there will be an obvious void at the top of the rotation that will need to be staffed, but the departure of a clubhouse leader will prove to be even bigger shoes to fill for the rest of the roster. On a team that will feature an increasing number of high profile prospects in coming years, the presence of veteran leadership will be crucial to keep them in line. The unnerving truth is that on the there are few players on the current roster that can fit that description.

The Cubs made some strides during the offseason to improve clubhouse character by trading away character cancer Carlos Zambrano. They also brought in wily veteran David Dejesus to pave the way for a future generation of selective and fundamentally sound players. However, most of the important players that returned to the North Side are not the type to set a positive example or inspire teammates before and after games. Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano may be two of the most important players on the field, but both face internal struggles that keep them from taking leadership roles. Garza has a lingering anger issue and Soriano has had a chronic issue with his hustle. Dejesus and Reed Johnson would be good candidates, but at the respective ages of 32 and 35 there is little guarantee that either will be able to stick with the team for more than another year or two. The right man for the job is one with a few years to burn and a mature disposition that can be seen from the moment they enter the league. Starlin Castro has his heart in the right place, but still needs work getting his head pointed in the same direction. Bryan LaHair is playing his first full year in the league and might also be traded by the deadline, eliminating him from the conversation as well.

So who can become the  Ryan Dempster of the future? Jeff Samardzija might be the most likely candidate. Samardzija may have a wild hairstyle, but the former two sport athlete at Notre Dame has always tamed his emotions and  carried himself with the utmost class during his first few years as a Cub. He has already had to face difficult circumstances with the passing of his mother during his high school years and the pressure to choose between football and baseball after graduating from college. Now that he has emerged as one of the Cubs’ best young pieces there is no reason why Samardzija couldn’t play a vocal role on the team for years to come. Anthony Rizzo may not even be on the major league roster, but it is almost a certainty that he will spend at least half of this year in the big leagues and should perform well enough to come back every year after. Rizzo has also faced life obstacles that have forced him to mature like his bout with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in 2007 and will be able to command the respect of the team if he can continue to hit for consistent power in the bigs. Darwin Barney has a respectable and intelligent way about him and might also play a part in helping young players if he can keep a spot on the team.

There are options out there, but only one that can be seen as more than speculative. The need for leaders is evident and lacking on the current team. The difference between a great team and a talented one is a cohesion between players. Talent is important, but can be wasted without proper team chemistry. Ryan Dempster will leave behind a legacy of classy production and an outstanding Harry Caray impression during his time in Chicago. The next man up doesn’t need to be a great impressionist, but he must be willing to step up and do things the right way to help the Cubs break the curse that has plagued them for all these years.

To Trade or Not to Trade?

Cubs fans are happy to concede it in the early going, most likely because they’ve had such adequate practice in past years- this year’s team is a seller. Despite not generating the big name appeal that a team in acquisition mode will, it’s still exciting to see an albatross contract taken off of the books or a few promising players enter the farm system in a down year. The tricky part of deadline dealing is toeing the line between selling high and getting burned. There is often little indication of whether someone is at the peak of their performance in a given year or will end up being a player that could have helped put the team over the top in a later year. Trade rumours have surfaced about nearly everyone on the Cubs roster, even the seemingly untouchable Starlin Castro. The chances of Castro being moved are slim, but there are a number of other players that Theo Epstein could see fit to move in the coming months. It is imperative that Theo not set the Cubs back any more than necessary by trading away long term contributors, despite any current value.

Despite what some less knowledgeable Epstein fans, his early years with the Red Sox did not involve the trading of players purely out of the necessity to rebuild the farm system from the ground up. Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Pedro Martinez, and Jason Varitek were all on the roster when Epstein became the GM in Boston in 2002, and were still on the team in the 2004 World Series year. These two teams will most likely finish with very different records (The Bosox finished 93-69 in 2002) but the mantra was similar for both teams when Epstein was hired; a disappointing last few seasons that were only the most recent edition in a history of heartbreak. Both times Epstein was the overachiever brought in to change the culture in one of the countries’ biggest markets, and so comparisons can certainly be made in regards to dealing with personnel.

The best comparison between one of those guys and a current Cub is Damon and Matt Garza, who both were/are 28 years of age in Epstein’s first season with their respective club and are seen as crucial pieces but just fall short of being cornerstones. 2002 was Damon’s first season and 2012 is Garza’s second, and both put together solid numbers during their first year with their new team. Damon hit .286 with 11 triples and Garza posted a 3.32 ERA with a 1.258 WHIP. After narrowly missing the playoffs in ‘02, Epstein saw it fit to keep anyone who was contributing on the team and build through free agency or the farm system. Two years later, history was made and the Red Sox have hardly looked back since. The Cubs might not be quite as close to a championship, but the sentiment is the same; hold on to players under 30 that are high caliber rather than try and take a gamble for more value in the long run.

A player that should be moved, however, would be an aging starter like Ryan Dempster. A player who won’t be able to sustain his 2.90 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for more than another season or two, and even that estimate may be a bit optimistic given the longevity of starters with over 2100 innings pitched. Dempster, although a great guy in the clubhouse and a productive player for now, would most likely be able to fetch at least one prospect with a good chance of contributing a year or two down the road from a contender looking to supplement the middle of their rotation, providing the Cubs with another option once they begin to regain relevance down the road. Other players are more borderline than Garza or Dempster, like Bryan LaHair. There is a case to keep LaHair, who could just be a late bloomer, but much more often it seems that players who get hot for a few months are prone to fizzle out, Exhibit A being Kosuke Fukudome in 2008. Ten years from now, fans will reminisce about how amazing it was that Fukudome was an All-Star starter and ended up hitting .257 with 10 home runs in the same year. LaHair’s age is really the tipping point, at age 29 he is too old to be seen as an emerging talent but too unproven to be given the benefit of the doubt to be productive for the next 4 or 5 years. The Cubs would be wise to sell high on LaHair and hopefully add another piece to the team in 2 or 3 years.

The decision to trade a player is always a tough one that should be judged on a case by case basis. The Cubs have a few interesting trade options, a few of which will never be able to play on a World Series team on the North Side and should have a chance to help a winner while they still can. Its even more crucial for Theo to understand that even Cubs fans won’t stand for a complete teardown and rebuild, and anyone who he can envision as vital to the team in 3 or 4 years needs to stay.